Saturday, November 24, 2007

Blunt In$trument

Startled awake by the yawning trade gap, the Bush administration slips into its modus operandi: wield a blunt instrument as a weapon. Currency exchange rates are among the most powerful and least focused macro economic tools. But hey, when you're in a hurry, you grab what's within reach.

China's currency has been dramatically undervalued for many years. But their currency is pegged to the dollar, so reducing the value of the dollar will not immediately change the economics of the China trade. And nobody thought the dollar was particularly overvalued to the Euro or other currencies.

The fall of the dollar helps exporters like Boeing but it is a direct tax – yes, a TAX – on all American consumers. This administration opposes taxes, publicly. Call it "collateral damage". Moreover, these tax proceeds go to domestic producers, not toward our huge budget deficit, further devaluing the currency. Simultaneously, it puts American assets on sale while cheating American creditors and raising prices on all foreign goods, like oil. The first consequence is probably the sole support for the sagging stock market, staggering under the doubt of unknown debt valuations. The second consequence will be more slowly reflected in deflated prices for American debt. Who wants American debt if we will repay them with devalued dollars?

Welcome to another long-term, deeply debilitating consequence of the miserably failed Bush presidency.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Graveyard Quiet

The Bush administration and Republicans in general are eagerly crediting the troop surge for the decline in violence in Iraq. Maybe they are partly correct. Another, probably stronger contribution is the extent of killing and displacement that has already occurred. “Ethnic cleansing” is preferred by the sensitive and those in denial.
Since the US invasion, about 100,000 Iraqis have been killed, hundreds of thousands have emigrated from Iraq, and millions have been forced to relocate within Iraq. Even the most committed killers cannot squeeze blood from a scorched earth.

The surge itself was supposed to encourage movement toward a political solution. There has been zero progress on this front but, as we saw with the WMDs, the Administration believes in being flexible with rationales and goals. Now, an improvement in a symptom of ethnic strife is being cheered as progress. While nobody can dismiss the importance of fewer people being killed, this improvement will most likely prove as transient as the others claimed by the Administration. They count on us to refocus on their next new delusion.

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Deal: my scarf over your head and yours around my neck

I like my alternate caption (the title) better than the one chosen by the NY Times: "So, Karl, how do you like your new job?".

Mine's metaphorical: we protect the Saudi royalty while they threaten to strangle us or drag us down. It's a deal with a devil of our own creation.

Granted, any joke you've got to explain is not very good.

Friday, November 02, 2007

Connecting the dots

The chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohamed Al Baradei, says that Iran is not building nuclear weapons. Who you gonna believe, an expert who has been proven right (about Iraq) or your lying Bush administration? Stop the madness!