After Trump has assumed the presidency, the long knives will
come out. Many of his ideas, insofar as
they can be discerned and distinguished from mere posturing and off-the-cuff
remarks, run contrary to long-standing GOP positions. He has personally insulted almost every
Republican stalwart. They suffered the indignities because they are not as skilled
at schoolyard bullying. They had little
choice but to allow Trump to become their nominee and then back him, albeit
half-(or less)-heartedly. However, once
they have seized the presidency, Trump becomes largely a liability to their
usual program: free trade, deficit reduction, counterbalance to Russia. They can impeach Trump secure in the
knowledge that Pence, a toadying conventional conservative, is next in
succession. A palace coup by legal
means.
Trump is trying to appease enough Republican constituencies
to avoid this fate. Nominating Goldman
Sachs bankers to financial posts, an anti-union CEO to labor, an anti-school
crusader to education, an anti-Palestinian to Israel, a fossil-fuel enthusiast
to energy, are just a few examples of currying favor.
If Trump follows-through on his promises of massive spending
– he tossed off a figure of $1Trillion for infrastructure and defense – and
cuts taxes, the deficit will explode. Such spending might well have been
beneficial in 2009, when it was proposed by Obama in the depths of the Great
Recession but vociferously opposed by the Republicans, because unemployment was
soaring above 10% and interest rates were threatening to go sub-zero. Now, however, with unemployment very low and
inflation/interest rates stabilized, such a fiscal stimulus will dramatically
increase inflation and create an enormous debt with a relative high interest
payments, constricting future leverage.
What will Speaker Paul Ryan and other opponents of deficit spending do?
If he follows-through on promises of stopping illegal
immigration and deporting illegal immigrants, many businesses will suffer labor
shortages and wage increases. This will
be opposed by many business owners, a group that is a mainstay of the GOP.
If he follows-through on closer relationship with Russia,
and reduces our ties to our NATO allies, countries in eastern Europe will be
pressured into a functional new Russian Empire.
This will be opposed by inter-nationalists and small-d-democrats,
including many Republicans, who believe the US must counterbalance such
ambitions.
If it were just the deficit, no problem because Republicans
in the past have ignored their ‘principles’ in similar circumstances, going
along with Reagan’s and George W. Bush’s spend-don’t-tax programs and the
deficit doubled each time. But they were
‘real’ Republicans. And it is not just
the deficit but several key Republican positions.
But nobody knows whether Trump will even try to keep any of
the promises he made. Many are
contradictory and early signs are many will simply be ignored. He just now
appointed a serious deficit hawk to lead his own budget office, suggesting that
he does not intend to follow-through with significant infrastructure spending,
or tax cuts, or both. We must become
accustomed to a President who evidently cannot formulate coherent or even
consistent thoughts.
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