Other World Bank

Loans by big banks to third world dictators have left these nations in debt, obliged to pay for weapons and lavish lifestyles of their former oppressors.  Why don't they repudiate the loans?  After all, if a thief took you hostage in your own house and ordered pizza and bling, you would not feel obliged to pay for it after the ordeal ended.  The main way nations are forced to pay debts is because if they don't, they will never get another international loan, leaving legitimate development without support.  The World Bank and International Monetary Funds are mostly debt collection agencies for banks that have forgotten that high rewards must come with high risk, meaning they could lose their money.

Why not provide an alternate source of funds for legitimate development, loans that are only made to democratically elected governments?  Aggregated, many individuals contributing to a fund could replace the big bank intermediaries and allow countries to repudiate debts incurred by former dictators.  This would expand the smaller scale idea that has produced successful micro-lenders, making loans to individuals who bigger banks have ignored. 

Maybe Pope Francis could kick-start the process by re-purposing the Vatican Bank from a money laundry to an Other-Wordly Bank.

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

In one day since posting a mild suggestion that consumers avoid buying things from Koch Industries, I got more "hits" than in the previous year.  Most were from this "media monitoring service": http://www.moreover.com/   Welcome!  I hope you like your work and are well paid by David and Charles.  Now we can answer the classic question, 'who watches the watchmen?'. 

America’s Cup Comeback not quite THAT Improbable

photo: USA Today

People say that the Oracle Team USA boat came back from being down 8:1 to win 8 straight and successfully defend the AC.  Actually, although the score was 8:1, the wins were “only” 8:3 in favor of Emirates Team New Zealand.  Oracle was docked 2 points for irregularities in the lead-in series sailed in 45’ cats.  The difference between 8:1 and 8:3 is dramatic when you compare the odds of losing team (Oracle) winning the next 8 straight.  

Trailing 8:3, the odds of Oracle winning the next race, race 12, was 3 in 11 (or 27%) because they had won 3 of the previous 11 races.  This is significantly better than the 11% odds they would have faced if they had won only 1 of the previous 9 races (i.e., really stood at 8:1).  No fancy Sabermetrics-on-water here, just common sense.  The next race, number 13, reached only because Oracle won the do-or-die race 10, was a little better, at 33%, and so on.  Oddly, due to the penalty, what began as a "best of 17", so first to 9 wins, became a 19 race series because ETNZ won 8 and Oracle won 11.  

The bottom line is that trailing 8:3 the losing team has about a 1:1,000 chance of winning the next 8 straight, whereas trailing 8:1 the odds are closer to 1 in a million.  This ignores the improvements the Oracle team made in their boat, which made their ultimate victory much more probable. The comeback was a truly remarkable, historical achievement by any measure. 

Defund the Koch Brothers

The billionaire brothers Charles de Ganahl Koch and David Hamilton Koch strongly support rightist efforts to block progressive legislation, recently most notably the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”). Of course they are free to spend their billions however they want, including desperately trying to reverse the results of elections.  However, you also have power beyond the ballot; your wallet.  Koch Industries is heavily involved in petroleum (surprise! not), so reduce your use of oil (but you knew that already).

Koch Industries also owns Georgia-Pacific, which makes products in your grocery store and recently they acquired a company making carpets.  Do NOT buy:

• Angel Soft toilet paper, 
• Brawny paper towels, 
• Mardi Gras napkins, 
• Quilted Northern toilet paper and paper towels, 
• Dixie paper plates and cups, 
• Sparkle paper towels, 
• Vanity Fair paper napkins, 
• Stainmaster carpet, or 
• Lycra fiber.

Send a message that you won't buy toilet paper from people who are making a mess.